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Predicting wOBA Using Process-based Statistics

When trying to determine a batter’s overall offensive value using a single statistic, one of the most popular metrics to use is the weighted on-base average (wOBA). wOBA is calculated as a ratio of a linear combination of “outcome” statistics (unintentional walks, hit-by-pitches, singles, doubles, triples, and home runs) divided by, essentially, the number of…More

Forehand: Offense, Backhand: Defense

By now it has been well established, that the majority of points in men’s professional tennis are shorter than 4 total shots, or 2 per player. Yet the most exciting spectacle in a tennis match is the extended rally, with players exchanging groundstrokes, battling for court position, and looking to exploit any small opening to…More

Ruminating on the Underhand Serve

Almost every sport has a set of unwritten rules that the competitors are expected to abide by and follow. In baseball, baserunners are discouraged from stealing bases in the late innings of a blowout. In American football, teams will often take a knee instead of running an offensive play if the game is already decided…More

Alexander Zverev vs. Rafael Nadal: A Tale of Two Matches

En route to his recent ATP Masters 1000 title in Madrid, Alexander Zverev notched his first clay court victory over Rafael Nadal. Zverev beat Nadal twice before their Madrid encounter, but both victories came on indoor hard courts. Playing Nadal on clay is a different animal though. His confidence on clay is sky high, the…More

3 Suggestions for Jannik Sinner Against Rafael Nadal

After losing to Rafael Nadal in the 2nd round of the ATP Rome Masters 1000, Jannik Sinner is now 0-2 in his young career against the Spaniard. Having a losing record against the greatest clay court player in the history of our sport is nothing to be ashamed of; Sinner’s other loss to Nadal came…More

The MVP Batter

In one of the later chapters of The MVP Machine, the authors describe a working relationship between an unnamed position player and a writer at an “analytically inclined” baseball website. The player felt that his club’s advanced scouting data wasn’t granular enough, and asked the writer to supplement the information he was given by the club…More

Jannik Sinner & Lorenzo Musetti: Two Paths, One Destination

As of April 26th 2021, there are two teenagers ranked inside the ATP Top 100: Jannik Sinner and Lorenzo Musetti. They both represent Italy, both are right handed, and both are fantastic movers on the court. Yet there are notable differences between the two as well. Sinner has a relatively flat two handed backhand, while…More

Monte Carlo Groundstrokes Spin Rates and Velocities

In tennis, the speed of the serve has been measured for decades. It usually flashes right after the serve either directly on the scoreboard, or on a dedicated display somewhere along the wall of the court. However, with the advent of Hawk-Eye and a more widespread use of ball-tracking technologies, we’ve been able to collect…More

Marcus Semien v. 2019 & 2021?

As we’re nearing the end of spring training and getting ready for the start of the regular season, one question on the minds of Blue Jays fans is: which version of Marcus Semien are we going to get? Will it be the Semien of 2019, who finished 3rd in the AL MVP race, and had…More

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