Not a Fan of Dirt
Clay is certainly not Daniil Medvedev’s favorite surface, and he’ll happily tell you so. Despite winning the Masters 1000 in Rome this year, Medvedev’s preferred surface is hard. He’s won his only Grand Slam title on the hard courts of US Open in 2021, made the finals in New York in 2019, as well as…
Beneath The Surface Of Tennis
When trying to forecast the outcomes of our decisions, one of the more widely used mental models differentiates between first-order and second-order consequences. First-order consequences are the more obvious, surface-level ones. They also tend occur relatively early after the decision is made. Understanding second-order consequences requires a deeper analysis, looking beyond the obvious. Second-order consequences…
Nick Kyrgios The Tactician
It would be an understatement to say that Nick Kyrgios is a polarizing figure in the world of professional tennis. He is a Grand Slam champion, and one of the most talented athletes in our sport. At the same time, one can never be quite sure what is going to happen when watching one of…
Carlos Alcaraz and Second Serve Placement
After the conclusion of the 2022 Australian Open, all the talk on the men’s side – and rightfully so – has been about Rafael Nadal and his 21st Grand Slam title. As much as Nadal has meant to the sport, it is no secret that the proverbial clock is ticking, and he is at the…
Predicting wOBA Using Process-based Statistics
When trying to determine a batter’s overall offensive value using a single statistic, one of the most popular metrics to use is the weighted on-base average (wOBA). wOBA is calculated as a ratio of a linear combination of “outcome” statistics (unintentional walks, hit-by-pitches, singles, doubles, triples, and home runs) divided by, essentially, the number of…
Forehand: Offense, Backhand: Defense
By now it has been well established, that the majority of points in men’s professional tennis are shorter than 4 total shots, or 2 per player. Yet the most exciting spectacle in a tennis match is the extended rally, with players exchanging groundstrokes, battling for court position, and looking to exploit any small opening to…
Ruminating on the Underhand Serve
Almost every sport has a set of unwritten rules that the competitors are expected to abide by and follow. In baseball, baserunners are discouraged from stealing bases in the late innings of a blowout. In American football, teams will often take a knee instead of running an offensive play if the game is already decided…
Alexander Zverev vs. Rafael Nadal: A Tale of Two Matches
En route to his recent ATP Masters 1000 title in Madrid, Alexander Zverev notched his first clay court victory over Rafael Nadal. Zverev beat Nadal twice before their Madrid encounter, but both victories came on indoor hard courts. Playing Nadal on clay is a different animal though. His confidence on clay is sky high, the…
3 Suggestions for Jannik Sinner Against Rafael Nadal
After losing to Rafael Nadal in the 2nd round of the ATP Rome Masters 1000, Jannik Sinner is now 0-2 in his young career against the Spaniard. Having a losing record against the greatest clay court player in the history of our sport is nothing to be ashamed of; Sinner’s other loss to Nadal came…
The MVP Batter
In one of the later chapters of The MVP Machine, the authors describe a working relationship between an unnamed position player and a writer at an “analytically inclined” baseball website. The player felt that his club’s advanced scouting data wasn’t granular enough, and asked the writer to supplement the information he was given by the club…
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Michal's Musings 